What Trump did for Netanyahu

Donald Trump achieved a remarkable victory in Iowa on 15 January 2024, winning the support of 51% of those who attended the Republican caucuses there. This was the first step in the process of choosing the Republican Party s candidate for US presidential election on 5 November. His rivals trailed by 30 or more points behind him, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 21% and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley with 19%. As a result, DeSantis has retired from the race.

This Iowa election result added weight to opinion poll findings that currently he is by far the most popular candidate amongst republicans. He will almost certainly be their candidate on 5 November. Assuming the legal attempts to prevent him standing fail, opinion polls indicate that he has a good chance of beating his near certain rival Joe Biden and becoming US president for the second time.

For example, a New York Times/Siena College opinion poll last November put him in front over Biden in 5 of the 6 swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) in which the outcome of the contest will be decided. Biden won all of these states in the 2020 presidential election.

Solving Ukraine and Gaza?

In his victory speech in Iowa, Trump had something to say about Ukraine and Gaza, claiming that, if he rather that Biden had won the 2020 presidential election, Russia would not have attacked (Ukraine), Israel would never have been attacked [1]. He said that these two issues would be resolved quickly should he be voted back into office later this year. He continued:

The Ukraine situation is so horrible, the Israeli situation is so horrible, what s happened. We re going to get them solved, we are going to get them solved very fast.

There is little doubt that he could solve matters quickly in Ukraine by ending military support for the Ukrainian government and, by so doing, force it to negotiate a settlement with Russia and end the senseless killing. Had he been president in 2020/1, the war in Ukraine might never have happened because he would have taken Russia s security concerns about NATO advancing eastwards more seriously than Biden.

Almost everything Netanyahu wished for

However, Gaza is a different matter. When he was in office, he was the most anti-Palestinian US president ever. He gave Benjamin Netanyahu, who was Israeli Prime Minister throughout his presidency, almost everything he wished for. For example [2]:

(1) in December 2017, the US recognised Jerusalem as Israel s capital and, in May 2018, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv

(2) in August 2018, the US ended financial support for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine Refugees and later proposed that it be abolished

(3) in September 2018, the US cut $25 million of financial support for 6 hospitals for the care of Palestinians in East Jerusalem

(4) in September 2018, the US closed the PLO office in Washington

(5) in February 2019, the US ended financial support to the Palestinian Authority

(6) in March 2019, the US recognised as Israeli sovereign territory the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (which Israel took over by force in 1967 and has subjected to military occupation ever since)

(7) in November 2019, the US declared that the 130+ Jewish-only settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Golan Heights are not per se inconsistent with international law

All these steps were taken by the Trump administration (and only (2) and (5) been reversed by Biden).

At the behest of Netanyahu, Trump also attempted to persuade Arab states to reverse their there longstanding commitment in the Arab Peace Initiative not to normalise relations with Israel unless it agreed to the creation an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza. Three Arab states Bahrain, Morocco and UAE submitted to his blandishments. To pressure Morocco/UAE into ratting on the Palestinians, the Trump administration recognised Morocco s long-standing claim to Western Sahara, having refused to do so in the past, and promised the UAE that it could buy F-35 fighters from the US.

In January 2020, President Trump, published his 181-page vision for Israel/Palestine, launching it in the White House with Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. The vision was that Israel would annex (a) the Jordan Valley and (b) the land surrounding the 130+ Jewish-only settlements in the West Bank and the US would recognise this additional territory as Israeli. Netanyahu had already proposed annexations along these lines. Providing Palestinians were willing, the rest of the West Bank (excluding East Jerusalem) could be part of a demilitarised Palestinian state completely surrounded by Israeli territory, that is, in effect, Palestinians would continue to live under Israeli occupation.

Implementation was to follow immediately. The President announced the formation of a joint committee with Israel to convert the conceptual map [in the vision document] into a more detailed and calibrated rendering so that recognition can be immediately achieved . But, although a committee was formed, it never reported and the proposed annexations didn t take place.

Hamas attack

President Trump claims that had he been president the Hamas attack on Israel would not have taken place. That seems very unlikely. The attack was driven by the permanent subordination of Palestinians under Israeli occupation and the obvious fact that there was no point Palestinians looking to the outside world for a political remedy. The latter was reinforced by the Trump administration s actions in Israel/Palestine, all of which were to the detriment of Palestinians. The Biden administration has continued the key Trump policy of seeking Arab state normalisation with Israel without the guarantee of a Palestinian state. Small wonder then that Hamas took matters into their own hands.

Postscript

Trump has fallen out with Netanyahu. He actually criticised him just after the Hamas attack and spoke about a bad experience he had with Israel s leaders, saying Netanyahu had somehow let the US down over the Soleimani assassination [3]. The Soleimani assassination occurred a few weeks before Trump announced his "vision" in January 2020.

David Morrison

28 January 2024

References:

[1] nationalpost.com/news/trump-israel-ukraine

[2] david-morrison.org.uk/palestine/trump-vision.htm

[3] www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-netanyahu-let-us-down-before-the-2020-airstrike-that-killed-iranian-gen-soleimani.