The Northern Ireland Elections: An Analysis

 

Table I summarises the results of the 10 Northern Ireland elections since 1997 - European, Westminster, Assembly and local government.  The table gives the overall share of the (first preference) vote in Northern Ireland and the number of seats for each of the major parties.

 

Voting share depends not only on a party’s pulling power, but also on who is standing against it, so comparing a party’s performance from one election to another is a hazardous business, the more so when, as is this case, the elections employ different electoral systems in different constituencies.  One factor to note is that small parties and independents – the Oth(ers) in the table – are more likely to stand in local government and Assembly elections under PR, which depresses the first preference share of the main parties. 

 

Having said that, Table I does illustrate the general trends in party strengths since 1997.  The outstanding features of these are well known: the rise of the DUP at the expense of the UUP (and the near elimination of other Unionist parties); the rise of Sinn Fein at the expense of the SDLP; and the shrinking of the centre ground until recently, when the Alliance Party made a modest recovery.

 

Table I 

Northern Ireland Elections 1997-2005

Percentage share & number of seats by party

 

 

1997w

1997l

1998a

1999e

2001w

2001l

2003a

2004e

2005w

2005l

DUP

13.6

15.8    

18.1

28.4

22.5

21.4

25.7

32.0

33.7

29.6

 

2

91

20

1

5a

131

30b

1

9

182

UUP

32.7

27.7

21.3

17.6

26.8

22.9

22.7

16.6

17.7

18.0

 

10

185

28

1

6a

154

27b

1

1

115

OthU

4.4

5.4

11.4

6.3

4.0

3.0

4.2

-

0.4

1.2

 

1

33

10

0

0

8

2

-

0

4

All

8.0

6.6

6.5

2.1

3.6

5.1

3.7

-

3.9

5.0

 

0

41

6

0

0

28

6

-

0

30

Oth

1.1

6.9

3.2

0.2

0.4

7.5

3.3

9.1

2.4

5.6

 

0

38

2

0

0

36

1

0

0

24

SDLP

24.1

20.6

22.0

28.1

21.0

19.4

17.0

15.9

17.5

17.4

 

3

120

24

1

3

117

18

0

3

101

SF

16.1

16.9

17.6

17.3

21.7

20.7

23.5

26.3

24.3

23.2

 

2

74

18

0

4

108

24

1

5

126

 

Notes:

a  Jeffrey Donaldson defected to the DUP in 2004, so that by the time of the 2005 election the DUP had 6 MPs and the UUP had only 5.

 

b  3 UUP MLAs subsequently defected to the DUP, so the DUP now has 33 MLAs and the UUP 24.

 

Source:  ARK (The Northern Ireland Social and Political Archive)

 

UUP dead in the water

On the evidence of the Westminster elections, the UUP is dead in the water: it now holds only 1 of the 6 seats it won in 2001 (North Down).  It had already lost Jeffrey Donaldson’s Lagan Valley seat to the DUP by defection and in the election it lost a further 4, 3 to the DUP (East Antrim, South Antrim, Upper Bann) and one to the SDLP (Belfast South).  Since there is a substantial Protestant majority in the latter constituency, and the DUP was the lead Unionist party this time, the seat is bound to fall to the DUP next time. 

 

The DUP now has 9 out of the 18 Westminster seats and can look forward to a 10th in South Belfast.  It’s conceivable that it could win an 11th from Sinn Fein in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, if the UUP didn’t stand and the SDLP did.

 

The DUP’s existing MPs look impregnable for the next decade and more.  Old age may eventually force Ian Paisley to retire, but it is unimaginable that his successor would fail to win North Antrim.  It is difficult to see how the UUP can win any Westminster seat other than North Down in the foreseeable future.  It’s going to be 9-1, or better, to the DUP for some time to come.

 

When David Trimble took over the leadership of the UUP in 1995, the score was 9-3 to the UUP, and Unionists held 13 out of the then 17 seats (Robert McCartney was the MP for North Down).  The SDLP held the other 4 seats, Joe Hendron having taken back West Belfast from Gerry Adams at the 1992 election.  So, David Trimble has presided over the decline of Unionism from holding 13 out of 17 Westminster seats to holding 10 out of 18, and over the decline of his own party from holding 9 to holding only 1, and having very little chance of winning any back.

 

It is true that the first past the post voting system for Westminster treated the UUP savagely in last month’s elections: the DUP received less than twice as many votes as the UUP (33.7% to 17.7%) but won 9 seats to the UUP’s 1 (and the SDLP got 3 seats with less votes than the UUP).  In the local government elections, held on the same day, the UUP received a similar share (18.0%) of the first preference votes and the PR system ensured that it was rewarded with a similar proportion of seats – 115 out of 582.  The DUP won 182 from 29.6%.

 

So, on the face of it, the UUP is not dead yet.  But, the difficulty for the UUP is that it has no longer got a reason to exist separate from the DUP, because there is no longer any significant difference between the parties on the main issue facing Unionism – the Belfast Agreement.

 

During the election campaign, the DUP maintained a discrete silence about the fact that before Christmas it made a deal to go into government with Sinn Fein on the basis of the Belfast Agreement, with a few cosmetic amendments to enable it to be described as a “new” agreement.  The DUP campaign was full of bluster about republican paramilitary activities having put Sinn Fein beyond the pale, and devolution having to proceed without Sinn Fein: voluntary coalition between Unionists and the SDLP was now the way forward, they said.  However, post-election this plan has disappeared from the DUP’s rhetoric (presumably, because the SDLP kept saying it wouldn’t play ball), and the new plan is that the Assembly be revived to supervise the activity of the direct rule ministers, which is a non-runner with everybody else that matters.

 

In fact, the DUP know that, if there is to be devolution, it will have to be on the basis of the Belfast Agreement with Sinn Fein ministers alongside DUP ministers.  They may not like it, but they accept it is the price for devolution.  In this, there is no significant difference with the UUP.  So, what is the point of a separate UUP, now that under Trimble’s leadership it has lost the confidence of the bulk of the Protestant community?

 

If there were an outstanding individual ready and willing to assume the leadership of the UUP, there might be a case for its existence.  But there isn’t.  Reg Empey is about the best there is, but he shows no enthusiasm for what is sure to be a thankless task.  The most likely development is that the party slowly expires as members and public representatives move over to the DUP.

 

*   *   *   *

 

On the nationalist/republican side, the story of the Westminster election is that Sinn Fein didn’t manage to wipe out the SDLP, which went into the election with 3 seats and came out with 3 seats.  The balance of seats went from 4/3 to Sinn Fein to 5/3 to Sinn Fein.  The SDLP has held its ground, for the moment at least, losing Newry & Armagh to Sinn Fein, which was a racing certainty, but holding on to Foyle and South Down and, by a stroke of luck, winning South Belfast from the UUP.  However, the outlook is not very bright for the SDLP in the next Westminster election. 

 

South Belfast

Next time, South Belfast is certain to fall to the DUP.  Alisdair McDonnell won this time for the SDLP because of the fallout from the retirement of the nominally UUP MP, Rev Martin Smyth, against whom the DUP didn’t stand.  When the UUP refused to make a deal with the DUP about a single Unionist candidate in this seat (and in Fermanagh & South Tyrone), the possibility arose of a split Unionist vote leading to an SDLP victory, which is what happened.   McDonnell won with only 32% of the vote (and fewer votes than in 2001), compared with 28% for the DUP and 23% for the UUP (and 9% for Alex Maskey of Sinn Fein).  A shift of a little over a thousand votes from the UUP to the DUP would give the seat to the DUP, other things being equal.

 

Alex Maskey’s vote (2,882) was almost exactly the same as in the 2001 Westminster election, but just over a thousand votes less than his vote in the 2003 Assembly elections.  It’s impossible to say if the McCartney killing, and his own personal involvement in the aftermath, had any effect on his vote.  He could have lost out both because of the involvement of IRA members in the killing and also because of the subsequent suspension of Sinn Fein members.  It was reported during the election campaign that Gerry Adams was heckled by republicans in the Markets area on the latter grounds. 

 

Although I haven’t got the figures to prove it, I understand that the Sinn Fein vote in the equivalent local government wards on 5 May was approximately the same as in the 2003 Assembly elections.  This suggests that some people who voted Sinn Fein in the local election voted for SDLP in the Westminster election on the same day, because of the possibility of McDonnell winning with the Unionist vote split.  This, rather than any fallout from the McCartney affair, may explain the drop in Alex Maskey’s vote.

 

(It has been suggested that former Alliance voters contributed to McDonnell’s election by switching to him.  This is not borne out by the figures: the Alliance vote held steady at around two thousand in this Westminster election and the last.)

 

South Down

The SDLP has little or no chance of holding on to South Belfast seat at the next election.  It may also have difficulty holding on to South Down next time, if Eddie McGrady retires.  He is now 70 and wanted to retire this time, but was persuaded not to, so he is bound to retire at the end of this Parliament.

 

Table II gives the SDLP and Sinn Fein vote and percentage share in South Down in the last two Assembly and Westminster elections.

 

Table II

South Down Elections 1998-2005

 

1998a

2001w

2003a

2005w

SDLP

23,257

24,136

15,922

21,557

 

45.3

46.3

35.1

44.7

SF

7,771

10,278

12,007

12,417

 

15.1

19.7

26.5

25.8

Lead

15.486

13,858

  3,915 

9,140

 

 

The table shows that the Sinn Fein vote in 2005, and vote share, was significantly up on 2001, and the SDLP vote, and vote share, fell.  However, Eddie McGrady ended up well ahead with a majority of 9,140 over Caitriona Ruane for Sinn Fein, albeit significantly down on his majority of 13,858 over a different Sinn Fein candidate in 2001.

 

In part, his majority seems to have been due to Protestants, who voted UUP in 2001, voting for him this time.  The UUP got about four thousand fewer votes than in 2001 and the DUP got about a thousand more.  So, it is reasonable to suppose that at least some of the missing three thousand UUP votes switched to him in order to keep Sinn Fein out.  However, he would have won comfortably without them.

 

(The fact that the combined SDLP/Sinn Fein increased from 66.0% in 2001 to 70.5% in 2005 lends weight to the view that some UUP voters switched to the SDLP).

 

Table II shows that Sinn Fein has advanced steadily in South Down since 1998 against the SDLP.  It took a second Assembly seat at the expense of the SDLP in November 2003.  However, there is little sign of advance since then.  While the Sinn Fein share since then has remained fairly steady (and its vote rose slightly), the SDLP share in the recent Westminster election was 44.7% compared to only 35.1% in November 2003.

 

On the face of it, this represents a significant SDLP revival.  However, as we have seen, some of the extra SDLP share is probably due to UUP voters switching, perhaps as much as 5%.  Also, various minor parties – Greens, Women’s Coalition, Workers Party – which stood in 2003 and accounted for around 3.4% of the vote then, didn’t stand in 2005, and their votes would mostly have gone to Eddie McGrady – which illustrates how vote share is affected by who stands against you.  Another factor is that an extra 2,000 people voted in 2005 compared with 2003 and it looks as if most of them voted SDLP (since it is the only party whose vote rose significantly), so it appears that the SDLP has increased its share in part by getting more people out to vote.  

 

There is no doubt that compared with 2003 the SDLP has increased its share of the vote in South Down – and widened the gap between it and Sinn Fein – by much more than the UUP votes “loaned” to it by former UUP voters, votes which wouldn’t go to the SDLP in Assembly or local elections.  It would be interesting to examine the results of the local elections, which took place at the same time – one would expect the SDLP vote to be lower by the “loaned” UUP votes, and the Sinn Fein vote to be approximately the same.

 

(A comparison with the local election results isn’t simple because South Down includes parts of three councils).

 

Foyle

The SDLP also held on to Foyle, where on the retirement of John Hume the new party leader, Mark Durkan, beat Mitchell McLaughlin of Sinn Fein comfortably.  Table III gives the SDLP and Sinn Fein vote and percentage share in Foyle in the last two Assembly and Westminster elections, and in the 2005 local election.  The latter was easy to compute since the Foyle constituency and Derry City council area are coterminous.  The results of council elections on 5 May are on the Derry City website here.

 

Table III

Foyle Elections 1998-2005

 

 

1998a

2001w

2003a

2005w

2005l

SDLP

23,342

24,538

14,746

21,119

18,467

 

47.8

50.2

36.1

46.3

41.1

SF

12,696

12,988

13,214

15,162

14,744

 

26.0

26.6

32.4

33.2

32.8

Lead

10,646

11,550

1,532

5,957

3,723

 

The Foyle results show some of the features of the South Down results.  The Sinn Fein vote in 2005, and its share of the vote, was significantly up on 2001, whereas the SDLP vote, and its share, fell.  However, Mark Durkan won comfortably with a majority of 5,957.

 

Again, in part, his majority seems to have been due to Protestants, who voted Unionist in the past, voting for him this time.  There is solid evidence for this from the difference in the Unionist vote in the two elections on 5 May: the UUP vote was 909 higher in the local election than in the Westminster election, and the DUP vote was 792 higher.  In other words, about 1,700 people who voted Unionist in the local elections (which is nearly 20% of them) didn’t vote Unionist in the Westminster election.  It is unlikely that, on the one visit to the polling station, they voted in one election and abstained in the other, so the likelihood is that they voted for Mark Durkan.  Note that nearly half of them voted DUP in the local election.  A second piece of evidence is that, as in South Down, the combined SDLP/Sinn Fein increased, in this case from 75.8% in 2001 to 79.5% in 2005.  However, Mark Durkan would have won without these votes.

 

Sinn Fein has advanced steadily against the SDLP in Foyle since 1998 in terms of votes and share of the vote, and in November 2003 Sinn Fein were a mere 1,532 votes (3.7%) behind the SDLP.  However, the gap widened to 5,957 (13.1%) in the Westminster election, and to 3,722 (8.3%) in the local election, the difference being primarily due to Unionists “lending” their vote to the SDLP in the Westminster election.

 

The SDLP has increased its share of the vote in the local elections in Foyle compared with the 2003 Assembly election – and widened the gap between it and Sinn Fein.  About 4,000 extra people voted in 2005 compared with 2003 and it looks as if the SDLP got a large proportion of them – in the local elections the SDLP put on 3,721 votes compared with 2003, while Sinn Fein put on only 1,530.

 

SDLP vs Sinn Fein – overall

In Northern Ireland as a whole, there wasn’t much change in the SDLP’s share of the vote in either of the 2005 elections, compared with 2003 - it was 17.7% and 17.4%, compared with 17.0%.  Likewise for Sinn Fein - 24.3% and 23.2% in 2005, compared with 23.5% in 2003.

 

The considerable increase in the SDLP’s share in Foyle and South Down must not have been repeated across Northern Ireland, otherwise there would be a more marked rise in the SDLP’s overall share.  Certainly, it didn’t happen in South Belfast, which was the only other constituency I have looked at in any detail.  My guess is that it was a consequence of the hard fought contests in Foyle and South Down, which persuaded former SDLP voters to come out.

 

Sinn Fein’s share has fallen a few per cent from the 26.3% it got in the European election last year, and the SDLP’s share has risen a per cent or two.  But the European election cannot be regarded as typical, since Sinn Fein had a well known candidate in Bairbre de Brun and the SDLP’s candidate, Martin Morgan, was almost unknown.

 

 

Irish Political Review

June 2005