Assembly elections November 2003

How the blocs fared compared with June 1998

 

There follows a comparison of the results of the November 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election with the results of the first elections in June 1998.  It concentrates on the changes between the blocs, that is, the Unionist/Nationalist/Other designations which, under the Belfast Agreement, assembly members are required to adopt on election.

 

I was prompted to make this comparison by the surprising discovery that, at a time when it is generally believed that the Catholic proportion of the population is growing, the Unionist bloc had increased its seats from 58 to 59 (out of a total of 108) at the expense of the Other bloc, which fell from 8 to 7, while the Nationalist bloc remained constant at 42.

 

When I looked at how this came about, I discovered to my surprise that, in 7 out of the 18 constituencies, the seats won by the 3 blocs changed, for example, in East Antrim the sitting SDLP Assembly member lost his seat to a Unionist and the Unionist/Nationalist/Other balance changed from 4/1/1 to 5/0/1.  Table I gives details of the movements in each of the 18 constituencies. 

 

The overall gain of 1 by the Unionist bloc was the net result of these 7 changes.  The Unionist bloc actually lost seats to the Nationalist bloc in 2 constituencies – North Antrim and North Belfast.  These seem to be a consequence of demographic changes and are probably permanent.  However, Unionists gained one in West Belfast where a vigorous campaign by the DUP – the candidate was Nigel Dodds’ wife – stirred Protestants into voting.  That seat will be hard to hold on to.  As we have seen, they also gained one in East Antrim where the result was certainly affected by Catholics being driven out of places like Larne in recent years.

 

Two changes were a consequence of the collapse of the Womens’ Coalition, which lost both its seats.  Readers may recall that in an attempt to save David Trimble in November 2001, the standing orders of the assembly were amended to allow Womens’ Coalition members to change their designation, whereupon their Catholic member, Monica McWilliams, redesignated herself as a Nationalist and their Protestant member, Jane Morrice, redesignated herself as a Unionist.  There is a certain justice in the fact that Monica McWilliams has now been replaced in South Belfast by a Nationalist and Jane Morrice has been replaced in North Down by a Unionist.

 

The 7th change was in the West Tyrone constituency where the SDLP lost a seat to an independent candidate who topped the poll, standing for the retention of an acute hospital in Omagh.  This was rather unfair to the SDLP since it was Barbre de Brun of Sinn Fein who took the decision to downgrade the Omagh hospital when she was Minister of Health.  Sinn Fein retained both its seats.  So, had it not been for this special local issue, the Nationalist bloc would also have gained a seat overall at the expense of the Other bloc.

 

Table II attempts to compare the first preference votes by party and by bloc with the 1998 election.  The Other bloc lost out badly in terms of first preference votes, its share falling from nearly 10% to under 7%.  The Alliance Party’s first preference vote fell by over 50% (from 52,636 to 25,372) but remarkably it managed to hold on to all of its 6 seats.

 

The Unionist bloc’s share of the first preference vote was 52.54%, an increase of about 2% compared with 1998.  The Nationalist bloc’s share was 40.67%, an increase of about 1%.

 

The most important outcome of the election is the fact that the DUP has now got a majority of seats within the Unionist bloc (30 seats out of 59).  Since the joint election of a First Minister and a Deputy First Minister requires the support of a majority of each of the Unionist and Nationalist blocs, the DUP is in a position to determine whether or not devolved institutions are re-established.  The best efforts of the British Government to save David Trimble have failed – and the interminable wrangling within the Ulster Unionist Party has happily become an irrelevance.

 

The DUP is in charge now.

 

 

 

Table I    Seats by bloc by constituency 2003 & change since 1998

 

                                                Unionist                      Nationalist                  Other

 

Constituency                 DUP/U/O     Tot                SF/SD   Tot                   Tot

 

Antrim East                              3/2       5 (+1)              0/0       0 (-1)               1

 

Antrim North                            3/1       4 (-1)               1/1       2 (+1)              0

 

Antrim South                            2/2       4                      0/1       1                      1

 

Belfast East                              2/2/1    5                      0/0       0                      1         

 

Belfast North                            2/1       3 (-1)               2/1       3 (+1)              0

 

Belfast South                            1/2       3                      1/2       3 (+1)              0 (-1)

 

Belfast West                             1/0       1 (+1)              4/1       5 (-1)               0

 

Down North                             2/2/1    5 (+1)              0/0       0                      1 (-1)

 

Down South                             1/1       2                      2/2       4                      0

 

Fermanagh & South Tyrone      1/2       3                      2/1       3                      0

 

Foyle                                        1/0       1                      2/3       5                      0

 

Lagan Valley                            1/3       4                      0/1       1                      1

 

Londonderry East                     2/2       4                      1/1       2                      0

 

Mid Ulster                                1/1       2                      3/1       4                      0

 

Newry & Armagh                     1/1       2                      3/1       4                      0

 

Strangford                                3/2       5                      0/0       0                      1

 

Tyrone West                            1/1       2                      2/1       3 (-1)               1 (+1)

 

Upper Bann                              2/2       4                      1/1       2                      0

 

Total                                  30/27/2   59 (+1)           24/18     42                      7 (-1)

 

Notes:

(a)    Belfast East: other Unionist seat PUP (David Ervine)

(b)   Down North: other Unionist seat UKUP (Bob McCartney)

(c)    Other bloc seats are all Alliance Party, apart from Tyrone West, which was won by Independent Kieran Deeny.

 

 

 

Table II   Votes and seats by party & bloc 1998 & 2003

 

1998                                        2003

 

                        Votes              %        Seats               Votes              %        Seats

Unionist Bloc

 

DUP                145917            18.01   20                    177944            25.71   30

UUP                172225            21.25   28                    156931            22.68   27

PUP                   20634            2.55      2                       8032               1.16     1

UKUP               36541            4.51      5                       5700               0.82     1

NIUP                                                                              1350               0.20

UDP                   8651             1.07

Con                     1835             0.23                               1604               0.23

Ind Un              24339              3.00    3                     12010               1.74

 

Total               410142            50.62   58                    363571            52.54   59

                                                                                                          (+1.92) (+1)

 

Nationalist Bloc

 

SF                    142858            17.63   18                    162758            23.52   24

SDLP               177963            21.96   24                    117547            16.99   18

Ind Nat                  528              0.07                               1121              0.16

 

Total               321349            39.66   42                    281426            40.67   42

                                                                                                          (+1.01) (+0)

 

Other Bloc

 

All                    52636             6.50     6                       25372              3.67   6

NIWC             13019             1.61     2                         5785              0.84

Green Party           710             0.09                                 2688              0.39

SEA                                                                                 2394              0.35

WP                     1989             0.25                                 1407              0.20

Soc                       789             0.10                                   343              0.05

Lab                     2729             0.34

Nat Law                832             0.10

Ind Lab                 121             0.01

Energy 105              15             0.00

Ind Other            5986             0.74                                9042             1.31    1

 

Total               78826             9.73    8                     47031             6.80    7

                                                                                                          (-2.93) (-1)

Overall total   810317         100.01 108                     692028          100.01  108

 

 

 

1998 Electorate          % Valid Poll               2003 Electorate          % Valid Poll

1178556                      68.86                         1097526                        63.05

 

 

Explanatory notes

 

1998

Broadly speaking, for the 1998 election I have used figures from Nicholas Whyte’s website.  In particular, I have used his figures for Independent Unionists (24,339) and Independent Nationalists (528).  His votes column is 5,986 short, having a total of 804,331 rather than 810,317, which was the total valid poll in 1998.  I have assigned these to the Independent Other category.  I haven’t checked this in detail against the raw election results, but it appears to be reasonably correct.

 

2003

For 2003, I have used the figures from the BBC website.  The categories:

 

Ind                   19256

UUC                  2705

VFYP                  124

Ind                         72

UTW                     16

 

Total               22173

 

in the BBC table have been assigned to the three blocs as follows:

 

            Unionist            12010

            Nationalist          1121

            Other                 9042

 

            Total               22173

 

by looking at the raw election results and assigning each candidate to one of the three blocs.  The accuracy of these assignments cannot be guaranteed in all cases.

 

 

Constituency  Candidate                   “Party”                       Un       Nat      Oth

 

Antrim East      J McKee                      Independent                 1449

                        R Hutchinson                Independent                 1011

                        R Mason                      Independent                   364

                        J Anderson                   Independent                                          348

Antrim North    G Kane                        Independent                                          623

Belfast East      J McBlain                     Independent                                            72

                        Rainbow George          VFYP                                                     65

Belfast North    F Agnew                      UUC                              802

                        F McCoubrey              Independent                   469

                        R McCord                   Independent                                         218

                        J Gallagher                   VFYP                                                     17

Belfast South    LM Steven                   VFYP                                                     42

Belfast West     J MacVicar                  Independent                   211

                        D Kerr                         Independent                     16

North Down     B Wilson                      Independent                                        1350

                        A Chambers                 Independent                 1077

                        A Field             Independent                    428

                        C Carter                       Independent                    109

South Down     M Curran                     Independent                                           162

Foyle                A Courtney                  Independent                             802

                        D McBrearty                Independent                                           137

Lagan Valley    I Davis                         Independent                 2223

L’derry East     B Douglas                    UUC                            1903

Newry & Arm  W Fraser                      Ind Unionist                     632

 

Strangford        D McCarthy                 Ind Nationalist                            319

Tyrone West    K Deeny                      Independent                                        6158

Upper Bann      D Jones                        Ind Unionist                     585

                        S Anderson                  Ind unionist                      581

 

 

                                                            Totals                          12010  1121   9042

 

 

Irish Political Review

January 2004