Assembly elections November 2003

How the blocs fared compared with June 1998

There follows a comparison of the results of the November 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election with the results of the first elections in June 1998. It concentrates on the changes between the blocs, that is, the Unionist/Nationalist/Other designations which, under the Belfast Agreement, assembly members are required to adopt on election.

I was prompted to make this comparison by the surprising discovery that, at a time when it is generally believed that the Catholic proportion of the population is growing, the Unionist bloc had increased its seats from 58 to 59 (out of a total of 108) at the expense of the Other bloc, which fell from 8 to 7, while the Nationalist bloc remained constant at 42.

When I looked at how this came about, I discovered to my surprise that, in 7 out of the 18 constituencies, the seats won by the 3 blocs changed, for example, in East Antrim the sitting SDLP Assembly member lost his seat to a Unionist and the Unionist/Nationalist/Other balance changed from 4/1/1 to 5/0/1. Table I gives details of the movements in each of the 18 constituencies.

The overall gain of 1 by the Unionist bloc was the net result of these 7 changes. The Unionist bloc actually lost seats to the Nationalist bloc in 2 constituencies – North Antrim and North Belfast. These seem to be a consequence of demographic changes and are probably permanent. However, Unionists gained one in West Belfast where a vigorous campaign by the DUP – the candidate was Nigel Dodds’ wife – stirred Protestants into voting. That seat will be hard to hold on to. As we have seen, they also gained one in East Antrim where the result was certainly affected by Catholics being driven out of places like Larne in recent years.

Two changes were a consequence of the collapse of the Womens’ Coalition, which lost both its seats. Readers may recall that in an attempt to save David Trimble in November 2001, the standing orders of the assembly were amended to allow Womens’ Coalition members to change their designation, whereupon their Catholic member, Monica McWilliams, redesignated herself as a Nationalist and their Protestant member, Jane Morrice, redesignated herself as a Unionist. There is a certain justice in the fact that Monica McWilliams has now been replaced in South Belfast by a Nationalist and Jane Morrice has been replaced in North Down by a Unionist.

The 7^th change was in the West Tyrone constituency where the SDLP lost a seat to an independent candidate who topped the poll, standing for the retention of an acute hospital in Omagh. This was rather unfair to the SDLP since it was Barbre de Brun of Sinn Fein who took the decision to downgrade the Omagh hospital when she was Minister of Health. Sinn Fein retained both its seats. So, had it not been for this special local issue, the Nationalist bloc would also have gained a seat overall at the expense of the Other bloc.

Table II attempts to compare the first preference votes by party and by bloc with the 1998 election. The Other bloc lost out badly in terms of first preference votes, its share falling from nearly 10% to under 7%. The Alliance Party’s first preference vote fell by over 50% (from 52,636 to 25,372) but remarkably it managed to hold on to all of its 6 seats.

The Unionist bloc’s share of the first preference vote was 52.54%, an increase of about 2% compared with 1998. The Nationalist bloc’s share was 40.67%, an increase of about 1%.

The most important outcome of the election is the fact that the DUP has now got a majority of seats within the Unionist bloc (30 seats out of 59). Since the joint election of a First Minister and a Deputy First Minister requires the support of a majority of each of the Unionist and Nationalist blocs, the DUP is in a position to determine whether or not devolved institutions are re-established. The best efforts of the British Government to save David Trimble have failed – and the interminable wrangling within the Ulster Unionist Party has happily become an irrelevance.

The DUP is in charge now.

Table I Seats by bloc by constituency 2003 & change since 1998

Unionist Nationalist Other

Constituency DUP/U/O Tot SF/SD Tot Tot

Antrim East 3/2 5 (+1) 0/0 0 (-1) 1

Antrim North 3/1 4 (-1) 1/1 2 (+1) 0

Antrim South 2/2 4 0/1 1 1

Belfast East 2/2/1 5 0/0 0 1

Belfast North 2/1 3 (-1) 2/1 3 (+1) 0

Belfast South 1/2 3 1/2 3 (+1) 0 (-1)

Belfast West 1/0 1 (+1) 4/1 5 (-1) 0

Down North 2/2/1 5 (+1) 0/0 0 1 (-1)

Down South 1/1 2 2/2 4 0

Fermanagh & South Tyrone 1/2 3 2/1 3 0

Foyle 1/0 1 2/3 5 0

Lagan Valley 1/3 4 0/1 1 1

Londonderry East 2/2 4 1/1 2 0

Mid Ulster 1/1 2 3/1 4 0

Newry & Armagh 1/1 2 3/1 4 0

Strangford 3/2 5 0/0 0 1

Tyrone West 1/1 2 2/1 3 (-1) 1 (+1)

Upper Bann 2/2 4 1/1 2 0

Total 30/27/2 59 (+1) 24/18 42 7 (-1)

Notes:

(a) Belfast East: other Unionist seat PUP (David Ervine)

(b) Down North: other Unionist seat UKUP (Bob McCartney)

(c) Other bloc seats are all Alliance Party, apart from Tyrone West, which was won by Independent Kieran Deeny.

Table II Votes and seats by party & bloc 1998 & 2003

1998 2003

Votes % Seats Votes % Seats

Unionist Bloc

DUP 145917 18.01 20 177944 25.71 30

UUP 172225 21.25 28 156931 22.68 27

PUP 20634 2.55 2 8032 1.16 1

UKUP 36541 4.51 5 5700 0.82 1

NIUP 1350 0.20

UDP 8651 1.07

Con 1835 0.23 1604 0.23

Ind Un 24339 3.00 3 12010 1.74

Total 410142 50.62 58 363571 52.54 59

(+1.92) (+1)

Nationalist Bloc

SF 142858 17.63 18 162758 23.52 24

SDLP 177963 21.96 24 117547 16.99 18

Ind Nat 528 0.07 1121 0.16

Total 321349 39.66 42 281426 40.67 42

(+1.01) (+0)

Other Bloc

All 52636 6.50 6 25372 3.67 6

NIWC 13019 1.61 2 5785 0.84

Green Party 710 0.09 2688 0.39

SEA 2394 0.35

WP 1989 0.25 1407 0.20

Soc 789 0.10 343 0.05

Lab 2729 0.34

Nat Law 832 0.10

Ind Lab 121 0.01

Energy 105 15 0.00

Ind Other 5986 0.74 9042 1.31 1

Total 78826 9.73 8 47031 6.80 7

(-2.93) (-1)

Overall total 810317 100.01 108 692028 100.01 108

1998 Electorate % Valid Poll 2003 Electorate % Valid Poll

1178556 68.86 1097526 63.05

Explanatory notes

1998

Broadly speaking, for the 1998 election I have used figures from Nicholas Whyte’s website. In particular, I have used his figures for Independent Unionists (24,339) and Independent Nationalists (528). His votes column is 5,986 short, having a total of 804,331 rather than 810,317, which was the total valid poll in 1998. I have assigned these to the Independent Other category. I haven’t checked this in detail against the raw election results, but it appears to be reasonably correct.

2003

For 2003, I have used the figures from the BBC website. The categories:

Ind 19256

UUC 2705

VFYP 124

Ind 72

UTW 16

Total 22173

in the BBC table have been assigned to the three blocs as follows:

Unionist 12010

Nationalist 1121

Other 9042

Total 22173

by looking at the raw election results and assigning each candidate to one of the three blocs. The accuracy of these assignments cannot be guaranteed in all cases.

Constituency Candidate “Party” Un Nat Oth

Antrim East J McKee Independent 1449

R Hutchinson Independent 1011

R Mason Independent 364

J Anderson Independent 348

Antrim North G Kane Independent 623

Belfast East J McBlain Independent 72

Rainbow George VFYP 65

Belfast North F Agnew UUC 802

F McCoubrey Independent 469

R McCord Independent 218

J Gallagher VFYP 17

Belfast South LM Steven VFYP 42

Belfast West J MacVicar Independent 211

D Kerr Independent 16

North Down B Wilson Independent 1350

A Chambers Independent 1077

A Field Independent 428

C Carter Independent 109

South Down M Curran Independent 162

Foyle A Courtney Independent 802

D McBrearty Independent 137

Lagan Valley I Davis Independent 2223

L’derry East B Douglas UUC 1903

Newry & Arm W Fraser Ind Unionist 632

Strangford D McCarthy Ind Nationalist 319

Tyrone West K Deeny Independent 6158

Upper Bann D Jones Ind Unionist 585

S Anderson Ind unionist 581

Totals 12010 1121 9042

Irish Political Review

January 2004