Northern Ireland Assembly elections

Unionist vote share falls by 3.7% to 48.8%

 

In the Northern Ireland Assembly elections, the DUP continued its dramatic advance against the UUP ending up with 36 seats to the UUP’s 18 (see Table I) [1].  Together they hold exactly half of the 108 seats in the Assembly.  The DUP easily saw off rivals who stood on a platform of outright opposition to power-sharing with Sinn Fein.  Chief amongst these was Robert McCartney, who personally stood without success in 6 constituencies.

 

Sinn Fein also continued to advance against the SDLP winning 28 seats to the SDLP’s 16.  However, the SDLP held its own in a few constituencies, notably, Foyle, Belfast South and South Down.  Sinn Fein easily saw off the dissident republicans, who were prompted to stand by its shift in stance on policing.

 

Overall, the Unionist share of the vote fell to 48.8%, that is, by around 3.7% compared with the 2003 Assembly elections, resulting in a loss of 4 Assembly seats.  With 55 seats (36 DUP, 18 UUP and 1 PUP) out of the 108 seats, Unionists now have only a bare majority in the Assembly.  The fall in the Unionist vote share was balanced by a rise of about 1.9% in the Nationalist vote share to 42.6% (and a gain of 2 seats) and by a similar rise in vote share by “Others” (and a gain of 2 seats).

 

An Executive was never formed from the Assembly elected in 2003, but had one been formed, the operation of the d’Hondt system would have given the Unionist bloc 7 seats on it (4 DUP and 3 UUP) and the Nationalist bloc 5 seats (3 Sinn Fein and 2 SDLP).  Despite the Unionist losses and the Nationalist gains in these elections, the operation of d’Hondt will still give the Unionist bloc 7 seats (5 DUP – the First Minister plus 4 departmental Ministers – and 2 UUP) and the Nationalist bloc 5 seats (4 Sinn Fein – the Deputy First Minister plus 3 departmental Ministers – and 1 SDLP).

 

DUP vs UUP

The DUP got over twice as many first preference votes as the UUP (30.1% compared with 14.9%) and twice as many MLAs (36 compared with 18).   The turnout and the number of votes cast was almost exactly the same as in 2003, but the DUP increased its vote by nearly 30,000 to 207,721 compared with 2003.  Its vote share rose from 25.7% to 30.1%.  At the same time, the UUP vote fell by over 53,000 to 103,145 and its vote share from 22.7% to 14.9%.  The DUP gained 6 seats compared with 2003 and the UUP lost 9.

 

(It should be remembered that, shortly after the 2003 elections, 3 UUP MLAs defected to the DUP.  Two of these, Jeffrey Donaldson in Lagan Valley, and Arlene Foster in Fermanagh & South Tyrone, stood for election this time for the DUP and retained their seats.)

 

The UUP lost votes primarily to the DUP, but it also lost votes to the Alliance Party at the other end of its political spectrum.  The Alliance vote increased by nearly 11,000 votes.  It is reasonable to assume that this was primarily at the expense of the UUP.   Alliance votes, which were given to the UUP in a futile attempt to “save” David Trimble in 2003, have now gone back to the Alliance Party.

 

There was no silver lining for the UUP.  Its vote share fell in all 18 constituencies and, in all but one of them (Newry & Armagh), it is now the minority Unionist party.  Since Westminster elections are fought in these constituencies using the first past the post method of election, the UUP has little or no chance of recovering from its disastrous performance in the 2005 Westminster elections, when it ended up with 1 MP (in North Down) compared with the DUP’s 9.  And since the DUP got 34.1% of the vote in North Down this time and the UUP only 23.7%, it will be difficult for it to hold on to that seat at the next Westminster elections.  An aspiring Unionist politician would be foolish to join the UUP.

 

Sir Reg Empey, the UUP leader, did poorly at the polls.  In Belfast East, where he was a sitting MLA, and has been a public representative for many years, the UUP’s vote share fell from 33.1% in 2003 to 22.0% and it lost a seat to the DUP.  It now has only 1 seat to the DUP’s 3 (one of them held by the DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson).

 

In Lagan Valley, where Jeffrey Donaldson and another MLA defected to the DUP after the 2003 election, the decline in the UUP vote was catastrophic - from 46.2% in 2003 to 18.6% in 2007 - and it lost 2 of its 3 seats to the DUP.  In Fermanagh & South Tyrone, where Arlene Foster defected to the DUP, the UUP vote fell from 28.7% to 19.7% and it lost 1 of its 2 seats to the DUP.

 

Changed rules

After the event, the UUP leadership tried to blame the party’s abject performance on the fact that the Government had changed the rules of the game, so that the largest party in the Assembly would nominate the First Minister, rather than the largest party in the largest bloc.  This principle is enshrined in the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006, which became law in November 2006, even though there is no mention of it in the St Andrews Agreement.

 

According to the UUP leadership, this was a factor in persuading Protestants to vote for the DUP, rather than the UUP, lest Sinn Fein be the largest party in the Assembly and therefore be in a position to nominate Martin McGuiness as First Minister.  The change cannot have done the DUP’s cause any harm.  It would be interesting to know if the DUP itself requested the change to provide an instrument for consolidating the Protestant vote under the DUP umbrella – and eventually eliminating the UUP.

 

Unionist dissidents

This change in legislation may have been a factor in increasing the DUP vote.  Another factor was the DUP’s ambiguity about sharing power with Sinn Fein.  Even though throughout the election campaign, like the other parties, the DUP portrayed devolution as essential to thwart the plans of the direct rule administration, it gave the impression that it would not enter into power-sharing with Sinn Fein to bring about this essential objective, unless and until Sinn Fein jumped through numerous hoops of an indeterminate character.  Since the elections, these hoops seem to have disappeared, but they were useful during the campaign for marginalising those candidates that stood on a platform of outright opposition to power sharing with Sinn Fein.

 

Nearly half of these were Robert McCartney who was the standard bearer for his UK Unionist Party (UKUP) in 6 of the 13 constituencies in which it stood.  Dogmatic opposition to power sharing with Sinn Fein gave the UKUP a reason for a separate existence from the DUP, and it nearly doubled its vote compared with 2003, but to only 10,452 votes, that is, a vote share of 1.5%.  Other dissidents, for example, David Calvert in Upper Bann and Willie Frazer in Foyle and Newry & Armagh, may have raised this share to around to 2%, but that is less than 1 in 20 of the Protestant vote.  The DUP have nothing to worry about from that quarter.

 

Sinn Fein vs SDLP

Sinn Fein increased it lead over the SDLP in votes and seats compared with 2003, with a vote share of 26.2% and 28 seats, compared with 15.2% and 16 seats for the SDLP.

 

However, Sinn Fein is not as dominant in the Catholic community as the DUP is in the Protestant community.   Whereas the UUP appears to be in free fall all over Northern Ireland, the SDLP held on in Foyle, Belfast South and South Down, where it has sitting Westminster MPs.  In these 3 constituencies (and 3 others where the Catholic vote is small), the SDLP is still the majority Catholic party.  In Foyle and Belfast South, the SDLP actually managed to increase its vote share compared with 2003. 

 

In Foyle, Sinn Fein’s vote share fell by 1.6% compared with 2003, possibly due the candidature of Peggy O’Hara, mother of Patsy O’Hara, who died on hunger strike in 1981.  She got 4.4% of the vote in Foyle.  Another dissident, former Sinn Fein MLA, Davy Hyland, who was de-selected by Sinn Fein and stood as an independent, got 4.4% of the vote in Newry & Armagh.  Other dissident republicans fared much less well.  In total, dissident republicans got around 8,000 votes, that is, around 1% of the total vote.  Sinn Fein has nothing to fear from them electorally.

 

Sinn Fein increased its vote by nearly 18,000 to 180,573 compared with 2003 and its vote share rose from 23.5% to 26.2%.  Its vote share rose in every constituency apart from Foyle and Belfast East.  At the same time, the SDLP vote fell by over 12,000 to 105,164, its share falling from 17.0% to 15.2%.  Sinn Fein gained 4 seats compared with 2003 and the SDLP lost 2.  The SDLP was rather unlucky in that, with more first preference votes than the UUP, it got 2 less seats and, as a result, will have only 1 seat on the Executive to the UUP’s 2.

 

Unionist vote falls

One feature of the election that hasn’t been commented on is the fall in the Unionist share of the vote by around 3.7% to 48.8%, from 52.5% in 2003.  The bulk of this fall was in the combined DUP/UUP vote share, which declined by around 3.4% to 45.0%, from 48.4% in 2003.  As a result, Unionists lost 4 seats and now have only 55 out of 108 Assembly seats, that is, a bare majority, compared with 59 in the previous Assembly. 

 

The Nationalist share of the vote rose by around 1.9% to 42.6%, from 40.7% in 2003 and Nationalists gained 2 seats, one in West Belfast, where Sinn Fein gained a 5th seat, and the other in South Antrim, where Mitchell McLaughlin was elected, having moved from Foyle to stand.

 

(The “Other” share of the vote increased by a similar amount and the “Others” also gained 2 seats, one in Belfast South, where a Chinese woman, Anna Lo, gained a seat for the Alliance Party, and the other in North Down, where the Green Party displaced Robert McCartney and won an Assembly seat for the first time.)

 

The turnout in this election was almost the same as in 2003, and the number of valid votes cast fell by less than 2,000 in almost 700,000.  Yet the votes cast for Unionist parties and individuals fell by around nearly 27,000 from 363,571 to 336,831, whereas the votes cast for Nationalist parties and individuals rose by over 12,000 from 281,426 to 293,867.  It is reasonable to suppose that a significant proportion of the fall in the Unionist vote went to the Alliance Party, whose vote rose by nearly 11,000.  But what about the other 16,000 or so?  Was there a higher turnout in the Catholic community?  Or, is this a sign of a significant demographic change?  It’s impossible to say.

 

Bread and butter legacy

Listening to Tony Blair since the Assembly elections, one could be forgiven for thinking that electors in Northern Ireland chose between the parties on the basis of their policies on “bread and butter” issues.  On 14 March 2007, for example, he told the House of Commons:

 

“What was fascinating, by all accounts, about the election in Northern Ireland was that the bread-and-butter issues—water charges, health, education and the local economy—were prominent on the doorstep. That in itself says a great deal about the modern face of Northern Ireland.”

 

Is he so desperate to enhance his legacy that he has convinced himself that, not only has he brought peace to Northern Ireland, he has brought “normal” politics?  Does he really believe that it was Sinn Fein’s policies on “water charges, health, education and the local economy” that got it 70% of the vote in West Belfast but only 3% in Strangford?  Or could it be because most of the electors in West Belfast are Catholic and Nationalist and most in Strangford are Protestant and Unionist?

 

“Bread and butter” issues played a part in the campaign in that all the parties presented devolution as the means of halting the plans of the direct rule administration, for instance, to introduce water charges.  Since he became Secretary of State in June 2005, Peter Hain has set out to goad Northern Ireland politicians into devolution.  His standard answer to opponents of his proposals for the water service or anything else has been: if you don’t like what I’m doing, then take matters into your own hands by agreeing to devolution.  As this is written, it looks as though he can claim that his goading has succeeded.

 

 

Table I

Northern Ireland Elections 1997-2007

Percentage share & number of seats by party

 

 

1997West

1997

Loc

1998Ass

1999EU

2001West

2001Loc

2003Ass

2004EU

2005West

2005Loc

2007Ass

DUP

13.6

15.8    

18.1

28.4

22.5

21.4

25.7

32.0

33.7

29.6

30.1

 

2

91

20

1

5

131

30a

1

9

182

36

UUP

32.7

27.7

21.3

17.6

26.8

22.9

22.7

16.6

17.7

18.0

14.9

 

10

185

28

1

6

154

27a

1

1

115

18

OthU

4.4

5.4

11.4

6.3

4.0

3.0

4.2

-

0.4

1.2

3.9

 

1

33

10

0

0

8

2

-

0

4

1

All

8.0

6.6

6.5

2.1

3.6

5.1

3.7

-

3.9

5.0

5.2

 

0

41

6

0

0

28

6

-

0

30

7

Oth

1.1

6.9

3.2

0.2

0.4

7.5

3.3

9.1

2.4

5.6

3.2

 

0

38

2

0

0

36

1

0

0

24

2

SDLP

24.1

20.6

22.0

28.1

21.0

19.4

17.0

15.9

17.5

17.4

15.2

 

3

120

24

1

3

117

18

0

3

101

16

SF

16.1

16.9

17.6

17.3

21.7

20.7

23.5

26.3

24.3

23.2

26.2

 

2

74

18

0

4

108

24

1

5

126

28

 

Notes:

a  3 UUP MLAs defected to the DUP after the 2005 Assembly election, so at the time of  the 2007 Assembly election the UUP had 24 MLAs.  The DUP had 32, having gained 3 from the UUP and expelled one (Paul Berry).

 

 

 

David Morrison

21 March 2007

Irish Political Review

 

References:

[1] The information in this article about the 2007 elections results is taken from the results given on the BBC website at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/nielection/html/main.stm.  For earlier elections, see my articles in Irish Political Review, January 2004 and June 2005 (which are also available at www.david-morrison.org.uk/northern-ireland/index.html).